Wednesday, December 18, 2013

Paper finds solar activity explains climate change over past 200,000 years

A paper published in Earth and Planetary Science Letters finds solar activity was strongly correlated to climate change over the past 200,000 years. The paper reconstructs solar geomagnetic field strength using the 10Be isotope proxy of cosmic rays, which is inversely related to solar activity. The reconstruction in Figure 2 shows solar activity at the end of the record ["near present day"] was at some of the highest levels of the past 200,000 years, and solar geomagnetic field intensity approximately 3 times higher than during the ice age ~180,000 years ago.
Figure 4 below shows the strong correlation between solar activity [grey and black] and the climate change proxy [d18O in red] over the past 200,000 years. According to the author, "The marine δ18O [temperature proxy] record and solar modulation are strongly correlated at the 100,000 year timescale. It is proposed that variations in solar activity control the 100,000 year glacial–interglacial cycles." 

Thus, the paper appears to solve the mystery of what causes ice ages and glacial-interglacial cycles, which has remained unsolved due to the so-called 100,000 year problem of using Milankovitch Cycles to explain ice ages. That is, ice ages and glacial-interglacial cycles are primarily caused by changes in solar activity rather than solar insolation changes on the Northern and Southern Hemispheres as described by Milankovitch Cycles.

According to the author, 
"the geomagnetic field intensity appears to have varied by a factor of three over the last 200,000 years, with three excursions when the intensity became less than half the present value."  
"there are strong correlations between solar surface magnetic activity and climate at different timescales, which range from days through centuries. Whereas these observations have pointed to a causal relationship between solar activity and climate change, the details of of physical mechanism(s) still need to be worked out. It has been generally believed that the variations in solar magnetic activity lead to changes in total or ultraviolet irradiance of the Sun through the disc passage and evolution of sunspots and faculae, which, in turn, affects climate. Another posited mechanism through which solar activity could directly affect climate is via modulation of GCRs [Galactic Cosmic Rays], which induces cloud formation by inducing changes in the tropospheric ion production [Svensmark's theory]. If the changes in cosmic ray flux cause cloud cover variations, one would expect an inverse relationship between solar modulation and surface temperature, assuming that the proportion of low and high clouds remains constant. This is consistent with the observations in Figure 4 [below], although variations in irradiance could also affect climate by e.g. affecting ozone cover."
"In summary, it is evident that while there are strong correlations between solar activity and climate at different timescales, more work is needed towards finding mechanisms that change solar activity in the first place, and that explain the physical link between solar magnetism and climate." "The long term solar activity and the Earth's surface temperature appear to be directly related. The variations in solar activity may control the 100,000 year glacial-interglacial cycles providing a more tangible astronomical forcing than the estimated changes in solar insolation [Milankovitch Cycles] or cosmic dust accretion rates." 

Horizontal axis is thousands of years before the present. Solar geomagnetic activity is inversely related to galactic cosmic rays at Earth's surface, and thus inversely related to the cosmogenic isotope 10Be production.
Figure 4 shows the strong correlation between solar activity [grey and black] and the climate change proxy [d18O in red] over the past 200,000 years. According to the author, "The marine δ18O [temperature proxy] record and solar modulation are strongly correlated at the 100,000 year timescale. It is proposed that variations in solar activity control the 100,000 year glacial–interglacial cycles." 

Variations in solar magnetic activity during the last 200 000 years: is there a Sun–climate connection?

Mukul SharmaCorresponding author contact informationE-mail the corresponding author

  • Department of Earth Sciences, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH 03755, USA

Abstract

The production of 10Be in the Earth’s atmosphere depends on the galactic cosmic ray influx that, in turn, is affected by the solar surface magnetic activity and the geomagnetic dipole strength. Using the estimated changes in 10Be production rate and the geomagnetic field intensity, variations in solar activity are calculated for the last 200 ka. Large variations in the solar activity are evident with the Sun experiencing periods of normal, enhanced and suppressed activity. The marine δ18O [temperature proxy] record and solar modulation are strongly correlated at the 100 ka timescale. It is proposed that variations in solar activity control the 100 ka glacial–interglacial cycles. However, the 10Be production rate variations may have been under-estimated during the interval between 115 ka and 125 ka and may have biased the results. Future tests of the hypothesis are discussed.

Excerpts:

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Posted 06/06/02
Thanks to new calculations by a Dartmouth geochemist, scientists are now looking at the earth's climate history in a new light.
Mukul Sharma, Assistant Professor of Earth Sciences at Dartmouth, examined existing sets of geophysical data and noticed something remarkable: the sun's magnetic activity is varying in 100,000-year cycles, a much longer time span than previously thought, and this solar activity, in turn, may likely cause the 100,000-year climate cycles on earth. This research helps scientists understand past climate trends and prepare for future ones.
Published in the June 10 issue of Earth and Planetary Science Letters (Elsevier, volume 199, issues 3-4), Sharma's study combined data on the varying production rates of beryllium 10, an isotope found on earth produced when high-energy galactic cosmic rays bombard our atmosphere, and data on the past variations in the earth's magnetic field intensity. With this information, Sharma calculated variations in solar magnetic activity going back 200,000 years, and he noticed a pattern.
Over the last 1 million years, the earth's climate record has revealed a 100,000-year cycle oscillating between relatively cold and warm conditions, and Sharma's data on the sun's magnetic activity corresponded to the earth's ice age history.
"Surprisingly, it looks like solar activity is varying in longer time spans than we realized," says Sharma. "We knew about the shorter cycles of solar activity, so maybe these are just little cycles within a larger cycle. Even more surprising is the fact that the glacial and interglacial periods on earth during the last 200,000 years appear to be strongly linked to solar activity."
Sharma's calculations suggest that when the sun is magnetically more active, the earth experiences a warmer climate, and vice versa, when the sun is magnetically less active, there is a glacial period. Right now, the earth is in an interglacial period (in between ice ages) that began about 11,000 years ago, and as expected, this is also a time when the estimated solar activity appears to be high.
Beryllium 10 is useful for studying the geology from hundreds of thousands of years ago mainly because it has a half-life of about one and a half million years. In addition, there are two key factors that have affected beryllium 10 production over the last 200,000 years: the earth's magnetic field and the sun's magnetic activity. When there are high-intensity solar magnetic storms, more charged particles are interacting with cosmic rays, and less beryllium 10 is produced. Likewise, the earth's magnetic field changes the flux of cosmic rays into and out of the atmosphere.
Since the production rate of beryllium 10 and earth's magnetic field intensity are known for the last 200,000 years, Sharma could calculate solar magnetic activity for this time period.
"I took sets of existing, independent data and made new comparisons and calculations," says Sharma. Then he went a step further to make a connection with the history of ice ages by looking at oxygen isotopes in the oceans, which reveal the history of how much ice was at the poles and are therefore a measure of average global surface temperature.
"I compared the estimated past variations in the solar activity with those of the oxygen isotopes in the ocean. Although there is a strong relationship between solar activity and oxygen isotopic variations, it is too early to say exactly what is the mechanism though which the sun is influencing the terrestrial climate."
One explanation of the 100,000-year cycle was offered by the Milankovitch Theory of Ice Ages in the 1940s, which suggested that the cyclical variations in the earth's orbit around the sun result in the earth receiving varying amounts of solar radiation that, in turn, control the climate. This explanation is under dispute because the variations of the solar energy in relation to the changes in orbit are very small. Other current research focuses on past variations in the sun's irradiance, or heat intensity (as opposed to the magnetic activity).
Sharma notes that more analysis is needed to test his theory. "I've only looked at 200,000 years. My calculations need to be verified for a million years, for instance. Plus, regarding the current global warming debate, it still needs to be examined if the role of solar activity will exacerbate the rising temperatures that result from carbon dioxide buildup in the atmosphere."
This work was supported by Dartmouth College, the Max Planck Institute and by a grant from the National Science Foundation.

Related: 

New paper finds ice ages explained even with constant levels of CO2

7 comments:

  1. another paper showing solar geomagnetic activity from a 10Be proxy has increased by a factor of about 3 over the past 40,000 years [fig 5]

    http://www.llqg.ac.cn/admin/uppic/2007611112426.pdf

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  2. Another corroborating paper:

    http://www.paperscloud.com/GridWeb/resources/download/27.pdf

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  3. "That is, ice ages and glacial-interglacial cycles are primarily caused by changes in solar activity rather than solar insolation changes on the Northern and Southern Hemispheres as described by Milankovitch Cycles."

    How about the following paper?
    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2006GL027817/abstract

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    1. That is a classic paper I've cited in the past, but it does have to make many unproven assumptions to come to the "defense of Milankovitch" re the 100,000 year problem.

      Occam's razor clearly favors this paper as the most simple, direct explanation of glacial interglacial cycles without having to make so many theoretical assumptions.

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  4. sunspots follow geomagnetic activity changes by about 8 yrs

    http://science1.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2006/21dec_cycle24/

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  5. My understanding from other sources is that there was indeed a correlation between solar activity and climate change up until the 1970's. After that the correlation breaks down. This has been attributed to increases in human emissions. Man has now usurped the sun to become the most significant factor driving climate change. This is due to dramatic increases in population and industrial activity. I wish it wasn't so but it appears to be a fact.

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    1. That's what the climate propagandists want you to believe & here's why it's wrong:

      1. They don't calculate the integral of solar activity, which does explain 20th century climate change

      2. They don't consider the lagged effect of ocean oscillations, which are themselves driven by solar & lunar tidal forcing

      By simply taking those 2 factors into account, a simple climate model explains 96% of 20th century climate change

      http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2010/01/climate-modeling-ocean-oscillations.html

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